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African Legislators: Unrepresentative Power Elites?, , with Robert Mattes and Shaheen Mozaffar, conditionally accepted, Journal of Southern African Studies.

Abstract: African legislators both resemble and differ from the societies they claim to represent in important ways. Based on a unique survey of representative samples of parliamentarians in 17 countries, we find that legislatures are representative of national publics in terms of ethnicity and religion. At the same time, compared to ordinary African citizens, their MPs possess far higher levels of education, and are far more likely to be older, male, and come from professional or business backgrounds. Besides coming from higher social and economic status backgrounds, many MPs also previously held senior posts in the state and national government, or leadership positions in their political party. Does this mean that African legislators constitute a coherent, self-interested, social, economic and political ‘power elite’ detached from the interests of the voters? In the legislatures under investigation, we find little evidence of this effect. Markers of social, economic or political privilege and power overlap irregularly and in a non-cumulative way. Thus, far from comprising a slowly changing, cohesive and self-interested elite, Africa’s legislators come from a plurality of social and political backgrounds, and are relative legislative neophytes..

Where are the Sore Losers? Electoral Authoritarianism, Incumbent Defeat, and Electoral Trust in Zambia’s 2021 Election, , with Nicholas Kerr and Michael Wahman, forthcoming, Public Opinion Quarterly.

Abstract: How do electoral turnovers shape citizen perceptions of election quality in competitive authoritarian regimes? In this paper, we argue that electoral outcomes are crucial for determining perceptions of electoral quality. While detailed evaluation of electoral trust is complex in competitive autocracies with institutional uncertainty and polarized electoral environments, turnovers send strong and unequivocal signals about election quality. Previous literature has noted a strong partisan divide in electoral trust in competitive authoritarian regimes, but turnovers can boost trust among both incumbent and opposition supporters. We test this argument in the case of Zambia’s 2021 election, a case where a ruling party lost an election despite electoral manipulation and strong control over the Election Management Body. Using data from the first-ever panel survey carried out during Zambian elections, we compare trust in elections before and after the election. We find that perceived election quality increased after the 2021 electoral turnover among both losers and winners. Trust in elections increased the most among winning opposition supporters. Moreover, despite the outgoing president’s attempt to portray the election as fraudulent, losing ruling-party supporters also increased their trust in elections after the turnover. The study has important implications for the literature on democratic consolidation and institutional trust.

Drivers of Political Participation: The Role of Partisanship, Identity, and Incentives in Mobilizing Zambian Citizens, with Prisca Jöst, Sarah J Lockwood, and Ellen Lust, 2023, Comparative Political Studies.

Abstract: Scholars and policymakers widely view identity as a key driver of African citizens’ political engagement. In doing so, however, they have emphasized ethnicity and largely sidelined other identities, including gender, local origin, shared residency, and partisanship. In this paper, we explore which identities drive political engagement and why they do so. We employ an original survey experiment that includes various identities and other incentives that may drive citizens’ participation around Zambia’s 2021 national elections. We find that partisanship most influences individuals’ stated willingness to campaign for a candidate or meet with an MP, while ethnicity and social incentives play less significant roles. Finally, we explore the mechanisms underpinning these results and find that citizens anticipate sanctions if they fail to support a co-partisan but not a co-ethnic candidate. These findings have important implications for understanding political engagement and democratic development throughout the region.